current events /asmagazine/ en Debating America’s power—and peril—in a time of instability /asmagazine/2026/04/14/debating-americas-power-and-peril-time-instability <span>Debating America’s power—and peril—in a time of instability</span> <span><span>Rachel Sauer</span></span> <span><time datetime="2026-04-14T10:59:45-06:00" title="Tuesday, April 14, 2026 - 10:59">Tue, 04/14/2026 - 10:59</time> </span> <div> <div class="imageMediaStyle focal_image_wide"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/focal_image_wide/public/2026-04/CWA%20Rice%20Bolton%20thumbnail.jpg?h=56d0ca2e&amp;itok=2i67JEAT" width="1200" height="800" alt="Susan Rice and John Bolton seated on a stage holding microphones"> </div> </div> <div role="contentinfo" class="container ucb-article-categories" itemprop="about"> <span class="visually-hidden">Categories:</span> <div class="ucb-article-category-icon" aria-hidden="true"> <i class="fa-solid fa-folder-open"></i> </div> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/30"> News </a> </div> <div role="contentinfo" class="container ucb-article-tags" itemprop="keywords"> <span class="visually-hidden">Tags:</span> <div class="ucb-article-tag-icon" aria-hidden="true"> <i class="fa-solid fa-tags"></i> </div> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/1003" hreflang="en">Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/642" hreflang="en">Conference on World Affairs</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/863" hreflang="en">News</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/1053" hreflang="en">community</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/1274" hreflang="en">current events</a> </div> <a href="/asmagazine/bradley-worrell">Bradley Worrell</a> <div class="ucb-article-content ucb-striped-content"> <div class="container"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--article-content paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="ucb-article-text" itemprop="articleBody"> <div><p class="lead"><em><span>Veteran national security advisors John Bolton and Susan Rice sparred over whether America is committing “superpower suicide,” headlining the Conference on World Affairs week</span></em></p><hr><p><span>“The United States is not committing superpower suicide,” veteran national security advisor John Bolton told a capacity audience gathered Monday evening in the University of Colorado Boulder’s Glenn Miller Ballroom. He paused, then added a qualifier, “So far.”</span></p><p><span>Seated a few feet away, veteran national security advisor Susan Rice offered a very different take.</span></p><p><span>“Sadly and dangerously,” she said, “the United States, under the current administration, is indeed in the process of committing superpower suicide.”</span></p><div class="feature-layout-callout feature-layout-callout-xlarge"><div class="ucb-callout-content"><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="imageMediaStyle large_image_style"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/large_image_style/public/2026-04/CWA%20Rice%20Bolton%20Schwartz.jpg?itok=-DhvWLTl" width="1500" height="1000" alt="Susan Rice, Jennifer Schubert-Akin, John Bolton and Justin Schwartz"> </div> <span class="media-image-caption"> <p class="small-text">Susan Rice (left) and John Bolton (second from right) with Jennifer Schubert-Akin (second from left), chairman and CEO of The Steamboat Institute, and Chancellor Justin Schwartz (right).</p> </span> </div></div><p><span>The stark disagreement between the two policy experts set the tone for a wide-ranging debate, during which the pair clashed over the extent to which America’s status as the world’s sole superpower has been damaged. Monday’s debate, sponsored by&nbsp;</span><a href="https://steamboatinstitute.org/" rel="nofollow"><span>The Steamboat Institute</span></a><span> and the&nbsp;</span><a href="/center/benson/" rel="nofollow"><span>Bruce D. Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization</span></a><span>, headlined 鶹Ƶ’s 78th </span><a href="/cwa/" rel="nofollow"><span>Conference on World Affairs</span></a><span> week.</span></p><p><span>While the debate’s title—“Is the United States is in the process of committing superpower suicide?”—was deliberately provocative, what emerged during the roughly two-hour debate was a respectful disagreement on certain subjects and a fair amount of common ground between Bolton, a staunch Republican, and Rice, a lifelong Democrat.</span></p><p><span>Bolton and Rice both have extensive experience shaping American foreign policy for U.S. administrations. Bolton was a national security advisor during President Trump’s first term in office and was U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006. Rice’s previous roles in government include serving as a U.S. national security adviser (2013–17), U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (2009–13) and domestic policy adviser (2021–23).</span></p><p><span><strong>Opening salvos contrasted views</strong></span></p><p><span>In her opening remarks, Rice issued a sweeping indictment of the Trump administration. She accused the administration of undermining the “five key pillars” of America’s postwar superpower status: military strength, economic power, alliances, domestic resilience and soft power.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>“On each of these five dimensions, we are far weaker today than we were even 18 months ago,” she argued. She specifically accused the administration of politicizing the Pentagon and purging senior officers, implementing an unpredictable tariff policy, damaging the European alliance and openly threatening allies. She also took the administration to task for making cuts to research funding, attacking universities, expressing hostility to public health institutions, dismantling USAID and rolling back environmental protections.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>Bolton did not dispute that American foreign policy under Trump—as well as previous administrations—had gone badly wrong. What he rejected was the claim that the damage was fatal.</span></p><p><span>“We have made multiple mistakes since the end of the Cold War,” he said, arguing that both political parties share responsibility. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Western leaders mistakenly believed history ended and rapidly reduced military spending, he told the audience, adding, “we have never recovered from that mistake.”</span></p><p><span>Bolton said U.S. leaders misunderstood Russian nationalism and ignored Vladimir Putin’s warnings that he viewed the Soviet collapse as a geopolitical tragedy. Failures to deter Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine flowed from that misreading, he said.</span></p><div class="feature-layout-callout feature-layout-callout-xlarge"><div class="ucb-callout-content"><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="imageMediaStyle large_image_style"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/large_image_style/public/2026-04/CWA%20Bolton%20and%20Rice.jpg?itok=Vq5DjDUl" width="1500" height="1114" alt="John Bolton and Susan Rice"> </div> <span class="media-image-caption"> <p class="small-text">John Bolton (left) and Susan Rice (right) discussed whether the United States is committing "superpower suicide" during a Conference on World Affairs event Monday evening.</p> </span> </div></div><p><span>Meanwhile, China represents another long-running error, Bolton said. American officials assumed economic integration would produce political liberalization, but “we were wrong on both counts,” he said, warning that China today is more autocratic and more aggressive.</span></p><p><span>Yet Bolton insisted these failures—serious as they are—do not mean America’s greatest days are behind it.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>As for President Trump, Bolton said, “We are suffering undeniably by his mistakes, but it is not superpower suicide. He is an aberration and will pass from the scene.”</span></p><p><span><strong>United on alliances and the UN</strong></span></p><p><span>Despite their opposing conclusions, Rice and Bolton did find agreement on the importance of alliances.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>“NATO is the greatest alliance in human history,” Rice said, emphasizing its deterrent value and reminding the audience that Article 5, which regards an attack on one NATO member as an attack on all, had only been invoked once—following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States. Undermining NATO, she warned, benefits Russia and China.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>“NATO is the envy of Russia and China, which is why they are trying to subvert it,” she said.</span></p><p><span>Bolton largely agreed.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>“What has provided peace and security in the world since 1945 was American power and the system of alliances that we built,” he said. He dismissed the idea of a “rules-based international order” as a myth, arguing that stability came from American strength.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>Their disagreement was on tone and trust. Rice said Trump’s threats regarding his desire to see the U.S. acquire Greenland and annex Canada and his transactional rhetoric have damaged allies’ confidence in America, while Bolton emphasized the long-standing failure of European allies to meet defense commitments, acknowledging that Trump’s confrontational style prompted allies to increase defense spending.</span></p><p><span>Bolton and Rice also agreed that the United Nations is largely dysfunctional, but disagreed about whether it can be fixed.</span></p><p><span>“The UN’s main political bodies are broken beyond usefulness,” Bolton said, while acknowledging some of its specialized agencies do valuable work.</span></p><p><span>“The UN is a mess, but we would be worse off without it,” Rice said. “The challenge is reform—not abandonment.”</span></p><p><span>As for China and its aspirations to reclaim Taiwan, Bolton argued that the United States should abandon its policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding the island nation in favor of a stated commitment to defend Taiwan to deter possible Chinese aggression.</span></p><p><span>“I think if we lose Taiwan, even slowly, to China … all of East Asia and Southeast Asia are in real jeopardy, because our credibility would be shot beyond repair,” he said.</span></p><p><span>Rice did not offer an opinion as to whether the U.S. should formally commit to defend Taiwan but she said Trump’s foreign policy regarding Asia is distracted.&nbsp;</span></p> <div class="imageMediaStyle large_image_style"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/large_image_style/public/2026-04/CWA%20Rice%20and%20Bolton%20onstage.JPG?itok=Kci-CYaR" width="1500" height="983" alt="Susan Rice and John Bolton onstage"> </div> <span class="media-image-caption"> <p class="small-text">Susan Rice (left) and John Bolton (right) during Monday night's Conference on World Affairs discussion.</p> </span> <p><span><strong>Experts divided on Iran</strong></span></p><p><span>Iran exposed the deepest philosophical split between the two national security experts.</span></p><p><span>Bolton argued that a hostile regime bent on acquiring nuclear weapons and supporting terrorist networks ultimately leaves America with only one option: “If a regime that’s hostile to the United States can’t be persuaded or forced to change its behavior, regime change is the only option.”</span></p><p><span>Rice forcefully disagreed.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>Noting that she would welcome regime change in Iran, she added, “Regime change through the barrel of a gun virtually never works … and it definitely never works without a ground invasion.” Preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons was best pursued through diplomacy rather than sustained military escalation, she argued.</span></p><p><span>Bolton said he believes that, as a result of recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s leadership and military sites, the Iranian regime is at its weakest point since it took power in 1979 and it could experience a “slow-motion collapse” before the end of the year if the U.S. applies sufficient pressure.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>Rice countered that by taking out the country’s leadership in a U.S.-Israeli first strike, Iran’s new leaders are now willing to do whatever they believe is necessary to remain in power—which has made Iran more dangerous.</span></p><p><span>What Bolton and Rice did agree on is that the United States currently has not clearly improved its strategic position against Iran.</span></p><div class="feature-layout-callout feature-layout-callout-large"><div class="ucb-callout-content"><blockquote><p class="lead"><em><span>“That spirit—open inquiry, civil discourse and the exchange of ideas across differences—is the fundamental role of universities in the United States and exactly what the Conference on World Affairs was created to advance."</span></em></p><ul><li><p class="lead"><em><span>Chancellor Justin Schwartz</span></em></p></li></ul></blockquote></div></div><p><span>The U.S. and Iran are now engaged in brinkmanship, waiting to see if their opponent blinks, Rice and Bolton agreed. “If it depends upon Trump’s resilience, we’re screwed,” Bolton said, drawing laughter from the crowd. Trump fired Bolton during the president’s first term due to sharp disagreements over foreign policy.</span></p><p><span>The Steamboat Institute allowed those in attendance and watching online to take a poll as to whether they believe the United States is committing superpower suicide. Before the night’s debate, 77% of those casting votes said the country is committing superpower suicide, 9% said it is not and 14% were undecided. After the debate, 75% of respondents said the country is committing superpower suicide, 13% said it is not and 12% were unsure.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span><strong>CWA designed to foster civic debate</strong></span></p><p><span>Kicking off Monday’s debate, 鶹Ƶ Chancellor Justin Schwartz noted that higher education is often criticized for failing to platform diverse political opinions.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>“Tonight, we are here and we are pushing back on that perception,” he told the audience, adding,&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>“That spirit—open inquiry, civil discourse and the exchange of ideas across differences—is the fundamental role of universities in the United States and exactly what the Conference on World Affairs was created to advance. At the University of Colorado Boulder, we believe democracy depends on our willingness to debate hard questions with rigor and with civility. Tonight, that belief is alive and visible.”</span></p><hr><p><em>Did you enjoy this article?&nbsp;</em><a href="https://cu.tfaforms.net/73" rel="nofollow"><em>Subscribe to our newsletter.</em></a><em>&nbsp;Passionate about the Conference on World Affairs?&nbsp;</em><a href="https://giveto.colorado.edu/campaigns/49802/donations/new?amt=100.00" rel="nofollow"><em>Show your support.</em></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div>Veteran national security advisors John Bolton and Susan Rice sparred over whether America is committing “superpower suicide,” headlining the Conference on World Affairs week.</div> <h2> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--ucb-related-articles-block paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div>Related Articles</div> </div> </h2> <div>Traditional</div> <div>0</div> <div> <div class="imageMediaStyle large_image_style"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/large_image_style/public/2026-04/CWA%20Rice%20Bolton%20header.jpg?itok=Dch3Fkin" width="1500" height="492" alt="Susan Rice and John Bolton at the Conference on World Affairs"> </div> </div> <div>On</div> <div>White</div> <div>Top image: Susan Rice (left) and John Bolton (right) during Monday night's Conference on World Affairs discussion. (All photos by Glenn Asakawa/鶹Ƶ)</div> Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:59:45 +0000 Rachel Sauer 6366 at /asmagazine Come for the cheese and pepperoni, stay for the lively political discussion /asmagazine/2025/03/05/come-cheese-and-pepperoni-stay-lively-political-discussion <span>Come for the cheese and pepperoni, stay for the lively political discussion</span> <span><span>Rachel Sauer</span></span> <span><time datetime="2025-03-05T12:38:10-07:00" title="Wednesday, March 5, 2025 - 12:38">Wed, 03/05/2025 - 12:38</time> </span> <div> <div class="imageMediaStyle focal_image_wide"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/focal_image_wide/public/2025-03/Spring%202025%20Pizza%20%26%20Politics.jpg?h=0168d1df&amp;itok=sEXIq9nn" width="1200" height="800" alt="Vote stickers in place of pepperoni on a pizza"> </div> </div> <div role="contentinfo" class="container ucb-article-categories" itemprop="about"> <span class="visually-hidden">Categories:</span> <div class="ucb-article-category-icon" aria-hidden="true"> <i class="fa-solid fa-folder-open"></i> </div> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/893"> Events </a> </div> <div role="contentinfo" class="container ucb-article-tags" itemprop="keywords"> <span class="visually-hidden">Tags:</span> <div class="ucb-article-tag-icon" aria-hidden="true"> <i class="fa-solid fa-tags"></i> </div> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/1240" hreflang="en">Division of Social Sciences</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/877" hreflang="en">Events</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/212" hreflang="en">Political Science</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/1274" hreflang="en">current events</a> </div> <div class="ucb-article-content ucb-striped-content"> <div class="container"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--article-content paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="ucb-article-text" itemprop="articleBody"> <div><p class="lead"><em>Politics &amp; Pizza event March 17 will let students and experts discuss the relationship between business and politics</em></p><hr><p>Many noteworthy images of the current political moment have included titans of business—in the Oval Office, speaking at a recent Cabinet meeting, gathered around the U.S. president during Inaugural events.</p><p>The relationship between business and politics has long been a fraught topic of discussion and, sometimes, contention—perhaps never more so than now.</p><div class="ucb-box ucb-box-title-center ucb-box-alignment-right ucb-box-style-fill ucb-box-theme-lightgray"><div class="ucb-box-inner"><div class="ucb-box-title">If you go</div><div class="ucb-box-content"><p><i class="fa-solid fa-arrow-right ucb-icon-color-gold">&nbsp;</i>&nbsp;<strong>What</strong>: Politics &amp; Pizza, "The Business of Politics"</p><p><i class="fa-solid fa-arrow-right ucb-icon-color-gold">&nbsp;</i>&nbsp;<strong>When</strong>: 5:30 to 6:45 p.m. March 17</p><p><i class="fa-solid fa-arrow-right ucb-icon-color-gold">&nbsp;</i>&nbsp;<strong>Where</strong>: Muenzinger E0046</p><p class="text-align-center"><strong>Free Cosmo's pizza!</strong></p><p><a class="ucb-link-button ucb-link-button-gold ucb-link-button-full ucb-link-button-regular" href="https://calendar.colorado.edu/event/polutics-and-pizza-the-business-of-politics" rel="nofollow"><span class="ucb-link-button-contents">Learn more</span></a></p></div></div></div><p>This will be the topic of the first Politics &amp; Pizza event this semester from 5:30 to 6:45 p.m. March 17 in Muenzinger E0046. The discussion will explore the proper relationship of business leaders and organizations to politics and the political system.</p><p>The aim of the Politics &amp; Pizza discussion series—which was initiated and will be moderated by&nbsp;<a href="/polisci/people/faculty/glen-krutz" rel="nofollow">Glen Krutz</a>, a professor of&nbsp;<a href="/polisci/" rel="nofollow">political science</a>—is to “encourage productive, substantive deliberation of specific topics, rather than rancorous and ideological macro-thoughts.”</p><p>“These events are meant to help CU students sink their minds into key, specific political issues while they are sinking their teeth into delicious pizza!” Krutz says. “The other main goal is to have experts get the discussion started, but then to very much have a discussion between the students and one another and the students and the experts. The interaction piece is central, rather than a one-way information flow that sometimes we see at talks on university campuses.”</p><p>Politics &amp; Pizza, which includes free Cosmo’s pizza, is modeled on similar sessions offered in Harvard University’s Institute of Politics. Each session will feature expert speakers who give a few introductory thoughts about the session’s topic and then open the session to a question-and-answer with students.</p><p>The theme of the Pizza &amp; Politics event March 17 is “The Business of Politics,” with panelists Scott Flanders, a former CEO of eHealth, Playboy Enterprises Inc., Freedom Communications Inc. and Columbia House Company and board member for Fathom Holdings Inc., Fellow Health and 890 5<sup>th</sup> Avenue; Paula Hildebrandt, former vice president for corporate development and integration planning with FedEx Corp. and former economic research associate with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City; <a href="/economics/people/faculty/taylor-jaworski" rel="nofollow">Taylor Jaworski,</a> 鶹Ƶ associate professor of economics; Midge Korczak, former executive director of the Boulder County Bar Association; and Brian Morgan, founder and CEO of Ranch Bucket Brands.</p><p>Upcoming Politics &amp; Pizza events will focus on current topics including science and politics.</p><hr><p><em>Did you enjoy this article?&nbsp;</em><a href="https://cu.tfaforms.net/73" rel="nofollow"><em>Subscribe to our newsletter.</em></a><em>&nbsp;Passionate about political science?&nbsp;</em><a href="/polisci/give-now" rel="nofollow"><em>Show your support.</em></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div>Politics &amp; Pizza event March 17 will let students and experts discuss the relationship between business and politics.</div> <h2> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--ucb-related-articles-block paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div>Related Articles</div> </div> </h2> <div>Traditional</div> <div>0</div> <div> <div class="imageMediaStyle large_image_style"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/large_image_style/public/2025-03/Spring%202025%20Pizza%20%26%20Politics.jpg?itok=lDAD7trI" width="1500" height="862" alt="Vote stickers in place of pepperoni on a pizza"> </div> </div> <div>On</div> <div>White</div> Wed, 05 Mar 2025 19:38:10 +0000 Rachel Sauer 6080 at /asmagazine CU foreign policy expert not optimistic on Syria’s outlook /asmagazine/2025/01/27/cu-foreign-policy-expert-not-optimistic-syrias-outlook <span>CU foreign policy expert not optimistic on Syria’s outlook</span> <span><span>Rachel Sauer</span></span> <span><time datetime="2025-01-27T10:03:19-07:00" title="Monday, January 27, 2025 - 10:03">Mon, 01/27/2025 - 10:03</time> </span> <div> <div class="imageMediaStyle focal_image_wide"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/focal_image_wide/public/2025-01/Syria%20flag.jpg?h=39f70439&amp;itok=ujurNpiF" width="1200" height="800" alt="Syrian flag against blue sky"> </div> </div> <div role="contentinfo" class="container ucb-article-categories" itemprop="about"> <span class="visually-hidden">Categories:</span> <div class="ucb-article-category-icon" aria-hidden="true"> <i class="fa-solid fa-folder-open"></i> </div> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/30"> News </a> </div> <div role="contentinfo" class="container ucb-article-tags" itemprop="keywords"> <span class="visually-hidden">Tags:</span> <div class="ucb-article-tag-icon" aria-hidden="true"> <i class="fa-solid fa-tags"></i> </div> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/1240" hreflang="en">Division of Social Sciences</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/212" hreflang="en">Political Science</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/686" hreflang="en">Research</a> <a href="/asmagazine/taxonomy/term/1274" hreflang="en">current events</a> </div> <a href="/asmagazine/bradley-worrell">Bradley Worrell</a> <div class="ucb-article-content ucb-striped-content"> <div class="container"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--article-content paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="ucb-article-text" itemprop="articleBody"> <div><p class="lead"><em><span>Political science Professor Federiga Bindi says the new, Islamic rebel-led government is telling the West what it wants to hear but that the situation on the ground is concerning</span></em></p><hr><p><span>In May, University of Colorado Boulder&nbsp;</span><a href="/polisci/" rel="nofollow"><span>Department of Political Science</span></a><span> professor and foreign policy expert&nbsp;</span><a href="https://ibs.colorado.edu/people/federiga-bindi" rel="nofollow"><span>Federiga Bindi</span></a><span> was asked to spearhead the creation of a conference sponsored by the&nbsp;</span><a href="https://afsc.org/" rel="nofollow"><span>American Friends Service Committee</span></a><span> regarding the future of Syria. The Middle Eastern country had been mired in a grinding civil war for 13 years with no end in sight, and AFSC was concerned the world had largely forgotten about the conflict and its resulting humanitarian crisis.</span></p><p><span>By the time the two-day conference, titled Reframing the Conversation Around Syria in Europe, convened in early December at the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium, the&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/09/middleeast/timeline-syria-assad-regime-toppled-intl/index.html" rel="nofollow"><span>Assad regime</span></a><span> that had governed the country for more than 70 years collapsed spectacularly as Muslim rebels swept through the country and seized the capital of Damascus.</span></p><div class="feature-layout-callout feature-layout-callout-large"><div class="ucb-callout-content"><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="imageMediaStyle large_image_style"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/large_image_style/public/2025-01/Federiga%20Bindi.jpg?itok=TW2Zh6Ho" width="1500" height="1500" alt="headshot of Federiga Bindi"> </div> <span class="media-image-caption"> <p class="small-text"><span>“The strategy of exporting democracy to the Middle East has failed miserably, because our understanding of the region was faulty and the Middle East is such a kaleidoscopically complex region,” says Federiga Bindi, a 鶹Ƶ professor of political science.</span></p> </span> </div></div><p><span>“Everybody was surprised—even that the rebel attack took place,” says Bindi, noting the war had essentially settled into a stalemate for some time. “That’s the interesting thing, because to prepare for this conference, I talked to a lot of experts. I went to Brussels several times—and nobody expected something like this. So, everybody was taken by surprise, and everyone was surprised how quickly things happened.”</span></p><p><span>In past years, the Assad regime had been able to successfully battle insurgents with support from Russia and Iran. However, with Russia bogged down in its war in Ukraine and Iran on the defensive after Israel’s attacks on it, as well as allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon—following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack on Israel—the situation on the ground in the Middle East is very different today, Bindi says.</span></p><p><span>“Also, there are indications that they (the rebels) were not alone—the U.S.,&nbsp; Israel and Turkey directly or indirectly supported them, because Syria was an ally of Iran, and if you take away Syria as an ally of Iran, then Iran can’t resupply Hezbollah in Lebanon,” she says. “So, the change (in leadership in Syria) is bad for the Russians, but I think it’s even worse for Iran.”</span></p><p><span>Meanwhile, Israel and Turkey can be considered the winners resulting from the outcome and the new major regional power in the Middle East, she adds.</span></p><p><span><strong>What next for Syria?</strong></span></p><p><span>At the December conference in Brussels, attendees—including foreign policy experts and Syrian activists—were “clearly happy that Assad was gone, but they were also very wary,” Bindi says. “Their first message was, ‘We shouldn’t just say this is great, because we don’t know what happens next.’”</span></p><p><span>While many Syrians at home and abroad—and many in the West—hope for peace and healing in Syria, Bindi says there are too many variables to know if that’s possible. One particular concern is whether the new government, composed of leaders from the Islamic rebel group Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), will show tolerance for the country’s religious and ethnic minorities and support basic human rights.</span></p><p><span>While noting that&nbsp;</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_al-Sharaa" rel="nofollow"><span>Ahmed al-Sharaa</span></a><span>, the charismatic leader of HTS, has swapped his combat fatigues for business suits, dropped his wartime pseudonym for his real name, and downplayed his past jihadist views for a more moderate form of Syrian nationalism in interviews with Western media, Bindi says the news that has been coming out of Syria is not encouraging.</span></p><p><span>“The way he (Sharaa) presents himself, dressed in a suit and speaking with western media, he’s been very conciliatory. For example, he just met with the custodian of religious sites in Jerusalem. He said, ‘Christians are going to be allowed to live in peace. Don’t worry. I’m a big supporter of the Pope.’ So, the rhetoric is very conciliatory, very Western, but the acts are not. The little news we have out of Syria is that Alawi (members of a religious minority to which previous President&nbsp;</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bashar_al-Assad" rel="nofollow"><span>Bashar al-Assad</span></a><span> belongs and drew power from) have been beaten and even killed.”</span></p><p><span>Separately, when the German foreign minister, who is a woman, recently visited Syria with a European delegation, HTS leaders declined to shake hands with her but did shake hands with male delegation members. Bindi says that could suggest HTS endorses strict Muslim prohibitions regarding interactions between men and women, in contrast with Syria’s recent past as a Muslim but largely secular country that allowed women many of the freedoms found in the West.</span></p><div class="feature-layout-callout feature-layout-callout-xlarge"><div class="ucb-callout-content"><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="imageMediaStyle large_image_style"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/large_image_style/public/2025-01/Umayyad%20Mosque.jpg?itok=vxCxdDOB" width="1500" height="1008" alt="Umayyad Mosque and surrounding area in Damascus, Syria"> </div> <span class="media-image-caption"> <p class="small-text"><span>“At the moment, there is no territorial integrity in Syria,” says 鶹Ƶ political scientist Federiga Bindi. (Photo: Umayyad Mosque and surrounding neighborhood in Damascus, Syria; Bernard Gagnon/Wikimedia Commons)</span></p> </span> </div></div><p><span>“So, that may suggest they (HTS) are not that liberal after all,” she says. “A former envoy to Syria, who I know very well, told me he’s convinced Syria is going to be a theocracy-style government like in Afghanistan.”</span></p><p><span>Meanwhile, Bindi says rightwing leaders in Europe are using the change in leadership in Syria to say that the roughly 2 million Syrian refugees can safely return home, but it’s her view that “Syria is not safe by any means.”</span></p><p><span><strong>Foreign troops occupy Syria</strong></span></p><p><span>Currently, several foreign governments have military troops occupying portions of Syria, and Bindi says the potential for clashes with Syrian forces and with each other remains ever-present, noting that those foreign powers have sometimes competing objectives. Israel has occupied the Golan Heights and nearby areas in Syria for what it says are security reasons, the United States has occupied portions of the country with the stated objective of fighting ISIS while also supporting the Kurds, and Turkish armed forces have occupied the northern portion of Syria to support rebel forces and to potentially combat what it calls Kurdish terrorists. Meanwhile, Russia, which maintained naval and air bases in Syria during Assad’s regime, still has some troops in the country.</span></p><p><span>“At the moment, there is no territorial integrity in Syria,” Bindi says. “I don’t see the Kurds giving up their territory in Syria. I don’t see the Turks giving up their territory. I don’t see the Russians leaving, if they can keep their bases. And I don’t see the Americans and the Israelis withdrawing. Nobody wants to give up their territories, so it’s a big mess.”</span></p><p><span>The new leadership in Syria likely isn’t happy that portions of the country are occupied by foreign powers, but it’s not in a position to demand their withdrawal, and it may grudgingly accept the status quo if it is allowed to implement a theocracy, she says.</span></p><p><span>Given the situation in Syria today, it’s hard to predict what comes next, Bindi says. Still, one scenario that Bindi says is very unlikely is that Bashar Assad, who fled to Moscow as the rebels closed in on Damascus, will ever return to power.</span></p><p><span>“I think he’s gone, just like the Shah in Persia,” she says. “He’s going to have a golden exile in Russia, and that will be it. He should be happy he saved his skin, unlike Saddam Hussein (in Iraq) and unlike Muammar Gaddafi (in Libya).”</span></p><p><span>The other scenario that Bindi finds very unlikely is that the United States and Europe will commit major military forces to Syria to attempt to promote nation-building and democracy, like they attempted with Iraq and Afghanistan.</span></p><p><span>“The strategy of exporting democracy to the Middle East has failed miserably, because our understanding of the region was faulty and the Middle East is such a kaleidoscopically complex region,” she says. “So, I don’t think we will put boots on the ground in Syria. That, I think, is fairly certain. The more plausible is that we just let them be, like we ultimately did in Afghanistan.”</span></p><p><span><strong>Risks remain for the West, as well as Syria</strong></span></p><p><span>Bindi says such a scenario does not automatically mean that the risks to the West are minimized, however, with the new Republican U.S. administration and Congress.</span></p><p><span>“To be frank, the most important variable is what will happen in Washington, D.C., after Jan. 20. That’s the true reality,” she says. “Syria is definitely not a priority for Trump, but the neighboring states are. The loss of (Assad) was a blow to Iran, and we know that for Trump, Iran is a foe, so what might the (new administration) allow Israel to do? I say that because Israel can only attack with the support of the U.S. It’s a very dangerous situation.”</span></p><p><span>Meanwhile, with so much recent conflict in the Middle East, Bindi says she is concerned that people in the West have become numb to all the fighting.</span></p><p><span>“I think we’ve gotten way too used to violence,” she says. “The images don’t touch us anymore. Kids die. We’ve become accustomed to the horror. We’ve lost our humanity, and I think that’s very scary.”</span></p><hr><p><em>Did you enjoy this article?&nbsp;</em><a href="https://cu.tfaforms.net/73" rel="nofollow"><em>Subscribe to our newsletter.</em></a><em>&nbsp;Passionate about classics?&nbsp;</em><a href="/polisci/give-now" rel="nofollow"><em>Show your support.</em></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div>Political science Professor Federiga Bindi says the new, Islamic rebel-led government is telling the West what it wants to hear but that the situation on the ground is concerning.</div> <h2> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--ucb-related-articles-block paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div>Related Articles</div> </div> </h2> <div>Traditional</div> <div>0</div> <div> <div class="imageMediaStyle large_image_style"> <img loading="lazy" src="/asmagazine/sites/default/files/styles/large_image_style/public/2025-01/Syria%20flag.jpg?itok=AYMKuC-h" width="1500" height="889" alt="Syrian flag against blue sky"> </div> </div> <div>On</div> <div>White</div> Mon, 27 Jan 2025 17:03:19 +0000 Rachel Sauer 6061 at /asmagazine